The Action Network: Best race day bet for Nashville

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I took a very conservative approach to betting on Sunday’s NASCAR Ally 400 (5 p.m. ET, NBC, NBC Sports App, MRN, SiriusXM) at Nashville Superspeedway.

In my mind, there are simply too many unknowns heading into today’s race to become too much, from a punter’s perspective, on the Ally 400.

However, 50 minutes of training on Saturday helped clear up some of those questions.

While I still don’t anticipate a big betting card for today’s race in Nashville, a driver’s odds of winning the Ally 400 are just too good to pass up.

NASCAR at Nashville Pick

*Sunday morning odds

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From the start of practice on Saturday, it was clear that the Toyota teams showed up with speed, especially in race trim.

The Toyota drivers finished first, second, fifth and sixth on average over 15 laps in practice, which is quite impressive considering there are only six Toyotas in the field.

As for my favorite value, I take Martin Truex Jr., who drives the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota, 15-1.

Truex didn’t have much short-term speed in practice; however, that didn’t seem to matter in qualifying as he earned a respectable 10th starting place.

But where Truex’s car really seemed to excel was on the long stints.

The JGR rider posted the seventh-best 10-lap average in practice and improved to the fifth-best 15-lap average.

Perhaps more important is the fact that Truex confirmed his pace during an interview during qualifying, saying the car has great long-term speed.

When a former Cup Series champion driver, in the best gear in the series, really likes a car that showed a lot of speed in practice, I pay attention.

When this driver is also available at odds of 15-1 (DraftKings), I bet.

The bet: Victory for Truex (15-1).

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